Why It Matters
Inhabitants Crime Expectations
Summary
By ward, we have calculated the probability of a resident being involved in a crime.
Definition
A notifiable crime in the UK is any crime that must be reported to the Home Office by the police. This generally includes the following: violence, damage, possession of weapons, robbery, burglary, forgery, data fraud, obscenity, drugs possession, sexual offences, and serious road traffic offences such as driving under the influence.
Interpretation
| Dataset | Explanation |
|---|---|
| Ward | This is the ward in which the postcode under consideration is situated. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in any Notifiable Offence | This is the estimated probability of being involved in a notifiable crime if one were to live in this ward. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in Violence Against the Person | These measures estimate the levels of “violence against the person” offences recorded in this ward. Such offences include: Assault with injury; Common assault; Harassment; Murder (homicide); Offensive weapon offences; Wounding/GBH; and all other violent offences. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in Sexual Offences | These measures estimate the levels of sexual offences recorded in this ward. Such offences include: Rape; Indecent Assault and Unlawful (under age) Sexual Intercourse; and all other sexual offences. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in Robbery | These measures estimate the levels of robbery offences recorded in this ward. Such offences include: Theft with the use of force or a threat of force; Both personal and commercial robbery are included; Snatch theft is not included. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in Burglary | These measures estimate the levels of burglary recorded in this ward. Burglary is the theft, or attempted theft, from a premises where access is not authorised. Damage to a premises that appears to have been caused by a person attempting to enter to commit a burglary, is also counted as burglary. Residential and commercial burglaries are distinguished by the function of the building. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in Theft and Handling | These measures estimate the levels of theft and handling offences recorded in this ward. Such offences include: Theft from a person, motor vehicle, bikes, residential or non-residential property and more. Theft and handling offences include the storage, transport or attempted resale of property after a theft has occurred. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in Fraud or Forgery | These measures estimate the levels of criminal damage offences recorded in this ward. Criminal damage offences are offences where property is intentionally destroyed or damaged, although not necessarily to gain entry to premises or a vehicle. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in Criminal Damage | These measures estimate the levels of criminal damage offences recorded in this ward. Criminal damage offences are offences where property is intentionally destroyed or damaged, although not necessarily to gain entry to premises or a vehicle. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in Drug Crime | These measures estimate the levels of drugs offences recorded in this ward. Drugs offences include possession, consumption, supply of or the intent to supply illegal drugs. |
| Inhabitant Probability of being involved in Other Notifiable Offences | These measures estimate the remaining levels of “other” offences that are notifiable to the Home Office and therefore recorded in this ward. |
Why the metric matters from a commercial inhabitant’s perspective
Home Office evidence suggest that circa 75 percent of businesses that experienced crime in 2017 did not have the necessary security measures to prevent such crime happening until after the crime had occurred. Understanding the likelihood of crime happening in your area is important to know so that you can protect your business accordingly.
The higher the likelihood of crime, the more precautions must be taken to secure your business and its assets against costly crimes such as burglary, vandalism, fraud and cybercrime. Even if criminals are not successful in breaking and entering your business premises, the damages of their attempts can still be extremely costly as not all insurance providers will cover all kinds of damage.
Cybercrime is an often overlooked form of criminal activity that is becoming increasingly prevalent, and can be significantly more costly than other more traditional forms of crime. Furthermore, the effect of crime can have a lasting effect on staff, with victims suffering emotional distress (69 percent), experiencing a loss of income (42 percent) and fearing that they will become a victim again (33 percent). Statistics show that wholesalers are particularly vulnerable to crime, so if you operate in this market you may want to consider spending a little more on security than might you think you need.
Why the metric matters from a residential inhabitant’s perspective
Residential inhabitants will want to know how likely crime is to occur in a given area if they are thinking of moving to a new area and want to check the relative safety of the location. Knowing the prevalence of crime will give a good indication of things that are and aren’t safe to do in a given area, such as walking home at night, leaving a bike locked outside your property, how safe it is to park your vehicle in your neighbourhood, and how much you need to spend on security at your home.
(Photograph: Matt Hone, Wikimedia Commons)
General Commentary
Towards the beginning of 2018, London featured in the headlines of British newspapers frequently due to a surge in violent crime across the city. This was alarming to many, since crime had previously been in decline for years. A number of factors have contributed to this; most notably is the drop in police officers across England and Wales.
The Metropolitan Police has 2000 fewer officers than it did 8 years previously in 2010, and police forces have also been expected to operate on significantly lower budgets. Other critics have noted the cuts to community services and youth centres as a major contributor to the crime wave, with others claiming that police powers are not extensive enough and must be reconsidered. The Met has since established a new violent crime task force, increased the use of stop and search, and have begun to see results already.
Trivia
A watershed moment in the history of policing occurred on July 22, 1910 when police were alerted to the location of one Dr. Crippen, who had murdered his wife and fled to Canada. The captain of the ship that Crippen fled on recognised his face from a wanted poster and sent a message via Morse code from the ship to notify the police.
History
Crime began to be tackled on an organised, nation-wide scale with the establishment of the new police force across the UK in the 1850s. Crime began to steadily decline the years after, and the majority of crimes were petty theft, drunkenness, and disorderly behaviour.
Due to the low instances of murder, by the beginning of Queen Victoria’s reign, many of the previous few centuries’ brutal punishments had disappeared, such as capital punishment. It only remained in place for those who committed murder or treason. Instead the government attempted to rehabilitate criminals by imprisoning them, forcing them to work, and providing them with occasional visits by religious officials.
By the end of the 18th century, doctors and psychiatrists came to be seen as more important to the reformation of criminals, and thus the extensive study of criminology entered full swing. This was also the time that detective policing began to rise to a prominent role in policing, and the mythical character Sherlock Holmes became immensely popular throughout the UK, creating an ideal of law enforcement that still persists to this day. From this a new form of policing arose: that of the constable patrolling the streets on foot, enforcing the law wherever it was transgressed.